[Macro and Liquidity] The market is expected to maintain interest rates in May of the Fed in May of 97.60%
1) Overseas: The core PCE price index exceeds expectations, and the United States is concerned about "stagflation" concerns; the market has delayed the time when the interest rate cut is cut to September.
[Market Observation] Both A shares and U.S. stocks have rebounded, and the liquidity has fallen.The main track congestion is differentiated
1) Asset performance: Both A shares and U.S. stocks have rebounded, the commodity market has differentiated, and gold has fallen
2) Micro -liquidity: The funds in the north are sharply inflow, the fund has increased by the scale of the fund, and the stock position has risen
3) Market emotions: See the top indicators to rise, and the segmentation track congestion is differentiated
[Strategy Perspective] US data is weaker than expected, and domestic policy is exerting power.
1) In the first quarter of the United States, economic data was lower than expected, and the suspicion of "stagflation" was rising again, but from the point of view, it was mainly the effects of disturbance factors such as inventory, trade, and government expenditure items.The recovery trend of core items is still good, such as service, durable goods consumption (except cars), residential investment, equipment investment, etc.The current "stagflation" of transactions is expected to be early, and it is still "inflation".
2) Domestic economic combination punch may begin to make efforts. It will be implemented with a new car subsidy plan, which will produce a better driving effect on promoting demand release.At the same time, as Chengdu cancels the purchase restriction, it is expected that first -tier cities will also start a new round of purchase restrictions in the near future.In general, the short -term market may advance along the main line of recovery transactions.
3) The risk aversion of overseas markets has rebounded. During the US stock financial report season, the performance of many AI related companies has been lower than expected to cause adjustments. At the same time, due to the long -term adjustment and deep adjustment of the Hong Kong market, related technology companies have a good cost -effectiveness, which may be more cost -effective. It may be possible.Attract the US stock risk aversion funds.
March industrial enterprise profits data point review: profit growth return reasonable trend
On April 27, 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics released the performance data of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to March.From January to March, the cumulative operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.3%year-on-year; the cumulative profit growth rate of the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.3%(10.2%from January to February)
After the base returning in March, the indicator also returned to a reasonable trend.We believe that corporate revenue growth and profit growth still continue to grow positively. Compared with last year, the business situation of enterprises has improved significantly.Compared with February, the cost rate of business business business rose slightly, and the number of inventory weeks of finished products and the average recovery period of accounts receivable decreased, and the profit margin of the main business income increased.
Among the upstream selection industry, the cumulative profit growth rate of black metal ore mining and non -ferrous metal smelting processing is relatively bright. The decline in the growth rate of non -ferrous metal ore mining, coal mining and washing selection has narrowed, but chemical raw materials chemical products have the growth rate of chemical materialsThe growth rate of positive and negative and non -metal mineral products has expanded.From the year -on -year year -on -year, non -metal mineral selection from negative to positive, and non -ferrous metal mineral selection expanded from positive rotation and coal mining and washing.
The domestic PPI performance was weak, the growth rate of industrial added value fell, and the decline in industrial utilization continued to suppress the profit margin of the midstream raw material processing industry. In March, the cumulative profit growth of various industries fell to varying degrees.The profit performance of the segmented industry is significantly differentiated. Petroleum and coal and fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, non -metal mineral products are in the negative growth range, and non -ferrous metal smelting processing and chemical fiber manufacturing profits are at a high level of growth.The cumulative profit growth rate of midstream equipment manufacturing in March has also fallen, but under the blessing of related policies such as equipment updates and new productivity, the profit performance is still significantly better than the midstream raw materials and upstream industries.Among them, computer communication and electronic equipment, railway ships, aerospaces, automotive manufacturing and other industries have maintained higher profit growth, and the decline in the decline in dedicated equipment and instruments and instruments has narrowed.
Multiple downstream manufacturing industries have maintained a steady growth rate. With the decline of the Spring Festival holiday effect, the growth rate of profit growth in high -growth industry has fallen, but most industries still maintain the profit growth rate of more than double digits. Consumption demand continuesRelease.Specifically, wine and beverage and tea manufacturing, textile industry, fur feathers and shoes, furniture manufacturing, cultural, educated, artistic and artistic sports and entertainment products, printing and recording mediums, rubber and plastic products, paper and paper products, other manufacturing, wood processing, processing, wood processing, processing, wood processing, processing, processing, wood processing, processing, processing, wood processing, processing, and processing, wood processing, processing, processing, wood processing, processing, processing, wood processing, processing, and processing, wood processing, wood processing, processing, and processing, processing, wood processing, wood processing, processing, processing, wood processing, processing, and wood processing, wood processing, wood processing, processing, and processing, wood processing, processing, and processing, wood processing, processing, wood processing, processing, and processing, processing, wood processing, wood processing, processing, and processingMachinery and equipment repair profits have maintained high growth; the profit manufacturing industry profits still have room for improvement.
Conclusion: Due to the base, the cumulative profit growth rate of enterprises in January to February this year is higher.The decline in March does not mean that the profit environment of the enterprise has deteriorated. In the first quarter of this year, corporate profit growth showed strong toughness. Among them, industries related to new productivity, especially railway ships, aerospace, computer communication and electronic equipment, universal equipment, general equipment, general equipment, general equipment, general equipmentManufacturing and automobile manufacturing have performed significantly, and have become the main driving force for the overall profit growth rate.
Figure 1: operating income, inventory and PPI trend
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: The production situation has improved real estate sales recovery
Last week, the production situation improved.With the continuous improvement of the overall price situation in the past three weeks, the price signal was transmitted to the production side last week.On the whole, the operating rate and output situation improved, the situation of capacity utilization has remained stable, and the price situation has not weakened due to the recovery of supply, but continued to improve, especially the price of black products is relatively strong recently.The improvement of both ends of the supply and demand last week may be related to seasonal, inventory behavior, and demand situation.If the main reason is changes in demand, high -frequency data is expected to further improve.
Figure 2: asphalt operating rate falls
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
The sales area of commercial housing rose: From April 20th to April 26th, the transaction area of the 30 city commercial housing was 2.2702 million square meters, an increase of 28.5 %%, a year -on -year decrease of 39.8%.
Figure 3:30 The transaction area of commercial houses in large and medium -sized cities
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: rising coal prices to rise in gold pricesIndore Investment
The price of coal spot rose: As of April 26, the price of coke was 1768 yuan/ton, an increase of 103 yuan/ton, and the price of power coal was 699 yuan/ton.The month -on -month increased by 46 yuan/ton.
Figure 4: Coal price increases
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Gold prices fell: Last week, the closing price of the main contract of gold in the last period was 554.58 yuan/gram, a decrease of 13.72 yuan/gram month -on -month, a decrease of 2.4%.The price of gold in London was $ 2343.1/ounce, a decrease of 36.6 US dollars per ounce from the previous month, a decline of 1.5%.
Figure 5: The price of gold falls
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: glass prices falling cement prices rise
Glass price decline: Last week, the price of tablet glass was 1854 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton month -on -month, and the price of floating glass fell 16 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton.
Figure 6: Falling price of flat glass
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
The average price of cement in the country rose: Last week, the price of the southwest region was 451 yuan/ton, which was flat. The price of cement in East China was 439 yuan/ton, which was flat. The average national cement price was 327 yuan/ton, which rose 5 yuan/ton month -on -month.
Figure 7: The average price of cement in the country rises
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: Tire operating rates Differentiated, polyester long silk prices fell
Tire operating rate Digues: Last week, the whole steel tire operating rate was 63.49%, a 5.29 percentage point from the previous month; the semi -steel tire operating rate was 80.99%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points from the previous month.
Figure 8: Division of tire operating rates (%)
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
The price of polyester long wire fell: Last week, the price of polyester filament was 7,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton month -on -month, a decrease of 2.0%, and the polyester filament inventory was 3.1432 million tons, an increase of 16.4%month -on -month.
Figure 9: Polyester long silk price fell
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: Tour data decreases car sales rebate
Domestic travel data declined: Last week, domestic flights were executed 84366, a decrease of 3.8%month -on -month, and a 7.8%year -on -year decrease.Last week, the traffic flow of the nine major cities was 402.4825 million, a decrease of 7.9229 million people from the previous month.
Figure 10: The number of domestic flights declines
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Car sales rebate: As of April 21, the average daily sales volume of passenger vehicles in the week of the week was 4,8033 units, an increase of 9208 units from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate was still -13%.
Figure 11: Car sales have rebounded month -on -month sales
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Domestic economic fundamentals: Export collection index rises
The BDI index fell.As of April 26, the BDI index was 1721, a decrease of 1.3%month -on -month, a year -on -year decrease of 8.6%.
Figure 12: BDI index fell
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
SCFI and CCFI rose: Last week, the SCFI index was 1940.63, an increase of 9.7%month -on -month.The CCFI index was 1193.64, an increase of 0.6%month -on -month.
Figure 13: SCFI, CCFI rise
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Overseas liquidity: Core PCE exceeds expectations, pay attention to the Federal Reserve interest conference meeting next week
Ten -year US debt yields have risen, and the US dollar index has fallen: On April 26, the 10 -year US bond yield rate was 4.67%, which was recovered from last Friday (4.62%). The US dollar index fell to 106.09 to 106.09Essence
Figure 14: Ten -year US debt yields have rebounded, and the US dollar index has fallen
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
The market has delayed the time to cut interest rates to September. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve interest rate conference next week: The market is expected to maintain interest rates next week.The financial market was originally expected to cut interest rates for the first time in March, but then the interest rate cut was postponed to June, and now it is postponed to September.According to CME’s "Fed of Reserve Observation": The probability of maintaining interest rates in May in May was 97.6%, and the probability of 25 basis points at a rate cut was 2.4%.The probability of maintaining interest rates from the Fed from June is 88.7%, and the probability of accumulating interest rates of 25 basis points is 11.3%.From the Federal Reserve to September, the probability of a total of 25 basis points at a cumulative rate of interest rates was 72.0%.
Figure 15: The market is expected to maintain interest rates in May of 97.60%
Data source: CME Group, Xinhua Fund
The core PCE price index exceeds expectations, and the United States falls into "stagflation" concerns: the US March core PCE price index rose 2.8%year -on -year, the expected increase of 2.7%, the previous value rose by 2.8%;0.3%.The PCE price index rose 2.7%year -on -year, expected to rise by 2.6%, and the previous value rose by 2.5%; 0.3%month -on -month, the expected rose 0.3%, and the previous value rose by 0.3%.
Fig
Data source: CME Group, Xinhua Fund
Global asset performance: Both A shares and US stocks have rebounded, commodity market differentiation, gold decline
A shares and US stocks have risen: from April 22 to April 26, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 0.76%, the CSI 300 rose 1.20%, the GEM index rose 3.86%;Rising 4.23%, the Hang Seng Index rose by 8.80%.
The commodity market was differentiated, and gold fell: From April 22nd to April 26th, gold fell 2.66%, LME copper rose 0.87%, LME aluminum fell 4.07%, SHFE nuts rose 0.19%, Nymex crude oil rose 1.75%.
Figure 17: Both A shares and U.S. stocks have risen, commodity market differentiation, gold decline
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
A -share review: computers, non -silver, electronics lead, coal, petrochemical, steel leading decline
计算机、非银行金融、电子涨幅居前，煤炭、石油石化、钢铁跌幅居前：计算机(6.31%) 、非银行金融(5.28%)、电子(5.03%)领涨，煤炭(-7.18%)、Petroleum petrochemical (-3.37%), steel (-2.54%) led the decline.
Figure 18: Computers, non -silver, electronic leadership, coal, petrochemical, steel leading decline
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Stock market liquidity: The turnover has fallen, and the capital of the north direction has a sharp net inflowChennai Investment
The turnover has fallen: From April 22nd to April 26th, the average turnover of Wan Dequan A was 854.526 billion yuan, and the decline was 85015 billion from the previous week.
Figure 19: The average daily transaction amount has fallen
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
The net outflow of financing balances, the land stocks were sharply inflow: This week, the financing balance was 148.1927 billion yuan, and the net outflow was 6.416 billion (7.506 billion yuan last week); the net inflow of land stocks this week was 25.796 billion yuan.
Figure 20: Weekly changes in financing balance
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Fund issuance has rebounded: from April 22 to April 26, Xinfa Fund was 10.527 billion, a month -on -month increase of 7.402 billion.
Rising positions of equity funds: 83.52%in the median positions of stock funds, a decrease of 0.03%from the previous month, and a median medium of mixed fund positions 72.99%, an increase of 0.71%month -on -month.
Figure 21: Fund issuance has picked up
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Buy banks, food and beverages, non -silver finance, selling banks, household appliances, and electrical equipment: From April 22 to April 26, net inflows were 25.796 billion.
Figure 22: The net inflow of land stocks was 25.796 billion
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Stock market valuation: This week’s valuation is up, about 30%of the number
Absolute valuation: This week, Ten Wanquan A (non -finance, petroleum petrochemical) PE was 26.1 times (25.7 times last week), and it was 32.2%in 2010;Bit.
Figure 23: Absolute valuation upward
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Relative valuation: This week, the GEM refers to PE/CSI 300PE of 2.4, which has been divided by 1.4%since 2010.Ahmedabad Investment
Figure 24: The relative valuation is in 1.4%division
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: The main track of the main track is differentiated
Digital economy and new energy squeezing have risen, and Special estimates and consumer style crowds have fallen.
Figure 25: Digital economy crowds has picked up
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 26: New energy squeezing has picked up
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 27: Zhongte’s estimated congestion has fallen
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 28: Consumption style is crowded.
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional observation: The crowded degree of new energy vehicles has picked up, and the photovoltaic squeezing degree has fallen.
The prosperity track will be segmented.
Figure 29: The squeezing of photovoltaics is falling
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 30: New energy vehicle congestion has rebounded
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: Except for semiconductors, the squeezing degree of the digital economy internal circuit is rising as a whole
The scenery track is subdivided again: Xinchuang, Computer, and Media’s Tournament have picked up, the semiconductor track crowding has fallen, semiconductor> Xinchuang> Media> Computers.
Figure 31: Computer crowding has picked up
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 32: Xinchuang crowding has picked up
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Fig
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: The squeezing degree of semiconductor tracks falls as a whole
The scented track is subdivided again: the congestion of semiconductor materials, semiconductor equipment, and semiconductor seal and testing tracks has fallen, materials> seal testing> Equipment
Figure 34: The congestion of semiconductor equipment is declined
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 35: The congestion of semiconductor material is declined
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 36: Advanced seal congestion has fallen
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: Construction and bank crowds have fallen
Looking at the prosperity of the Jingqi Circuit: Architecture and bank crowds have fallen, and buildings> Banks
Figure 37: The crowded of architect
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 38: Bank crowd
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Emotional Observation: Both pharmaceutical creatures and CSI Liquor Taoism have picked up
The prosperity track will be subdivided again: Medicine, creature, CSI liquor trail crowded, innovative medicines> CRO> liquor
Figure 39: Pharmaceutical biological crowd
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 40: Baijiu crowded back
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Figure 41: CRO’s crowdedness has picked up
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
Fig
Data source: Wind, Xinhua Fund
How can the stock price differentiation and the increase in doubtful sounds?
The logic of enterprises to go to sea has been more verified in the first quarter of this year, but the trend of individual stocks has been distinguished obvious, and market differences are also increasing.We understand that [overseas penetration rate] is a long -term variable, the core is to pay attention to product competitiveness and valuation safety range; for [periodic power], the key to the current judgment isThis article sorts out several focus issues that market attention.
The characteristics of this round of global manufacturing PMI improvement?This round of manufacturing PMI rebound belongs to a structural recovery, and the impact of high interest rate environment is a high probability that a weaker recovery cycle; in major countries, the PMI recovery trend of manufacturing in the United States, Mexico, India, Canada and other manufacturing industries is better, and EuropeThe prosperity of the manufacturing industry in Japan and South Korea is still weak.
In the first quarter of the United States, economic data was lower than expected. Is it the beginning of "stagnation" of transactions?The total data of the United States in the first quarter was lower than expected, mainly the effects of disturbance factors such as inventory, trade, and government expenditure items.The recovery trend of core items is still good, such as service, durable goods consumption (except cars), residential investment, equipment investment, etc.The current "stagflation" of transactions is expected to be early, and it is still "inflation".
What is the change in the prosperity of durable products?In the first quarter of the United States, the data consumption data and durable products in the first quarter can be confirmed to each other.From the perspective of the exit of our country, the current prosperity is high or the marginal products are improved, which can focus on: storage components, printing circuits in electronics; air conditioners, washing machines, small appliances in home appliances; passenger cars in cars; machinery in machineHand or machine tools, tractors, detection instruments, etc.
What do I think of durable goods exports?Most of the durable consumer products exported to the United States belong to low -end products (home, home appliances, textiles, electronics, machinery), and the probability of substantial sanctions in the future is not high.The direction of US manufacturing capital expenditures is that high -end industries such as computers and electronics are not focused on low -end products.In addition, the high capital expenditure of listed companies is mainly technology and energy, and the distribution of general industry and durable products is relatively low.
What are the recovery characteristics of going to the sea?Export perspective: presenting the pattern of quantitative strong price and weakness; viewing corporate perspective: profit is stronger than revenue.This round of external demand recovery phase of PPI shock is low, unlike the upper PPI of the external demand recovery stage from 16th to 17th and 20th to 21st.In revenue growth.
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The fund has risks, and investment needs to be cautious.Investors should not make this report the sole reference factors for investment decisions, nor should they consider this report to replace their own judgment.The content and opinions in the report are for reference only. In any case, the information or the opinions expressed in this report do not constitute the investment suggestions for anyone.Investors must pay attention to that any investment decision made by it has nothing to do with Xinhua Fund, Xinhua Fund employees, and related agencies.
The information in this report comes from public information and legal internal and external report materials obtained. Xinhua Fund does not guarantee the accuracy and integrity of this information.Analysis does not change.The information, opinions and speculations contained in the report only reflect the judgment of Xinhua Fund on the day of this report.
The emotional restoration of the A -share market, the risk aversion of overseas is getting stronger -Xinhua Fund’s large -scale asset allocation week newspaper (No. 145)
Domestic economic data fell, and the new "National Nine Articles" care market -Xinhua Fund’s large -class asset allocation week newspaper (No. 144)
U.S. Economic Revolution is expected to drive globally to enter the replenishment cycle -Xinhua Fund’s large -scale asset allocation week (No. 143)
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