Source: BWC Chinese website

On April 28th, the regional conflict in the Middle East stimulated the rise in oil prices to pry the expectations of US inflation expectations again. According to a report issued by UBS strategists, the United States faced the risk of stagnation.It is not the possibility of cutting interest rates, which will make the Federal Reserve raise interest rates again at the beginning of next year, and to 6.5%of the federal funds interest rates in the middle of next year. The institution said, Thus prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again and trigger in -depth selling in the US bond market and stock market.Hyderabad Investment

Data released by the US Department of Commerce on April 25 showed that the core price data of the Fed’s most popular personal consumption expenditure (PCE) soared from 2.0%to 3.7%, higher than 3.4%forecast value, which is higher than the upper limit of all analysts expected.This indicator is one of the inflation indicators tracked by the Federal Reserve to achieve a 2%inflation target.

However, the growth rate of GDP (GDP) in the first quarter accidentally fell from 3.4%of the previous value to 1.6%, which showed that the United States has experienced a short technical recession, and what is more terrible than inflation is that this has triggered the economy of the US economy.The stagnation concerns reminds people that the current situation of the US economy has amazing similarity to the 1970s.

This makes the latest interest rate exchange pricing show that less than 50%of the possibility of traders’ interest rate cuts before September, while former US Treasury Secretary Sames is more radical.Preparation, as the high interest rate continues to cover the background of the US banking crisis, it is now only one step away from the 1970s’ stagflation explosion, which has further expanded the selling of U.SNagpur Investment. Treasury bonds, which directly affects the US rescue of itself.Debt capacity in the dangerous situation.

These hinted that the Federal Federal issuance of new national debt will face turbulence and it is more difficult to obtain low -cost funds. At the same time, it also weakened the Fed’s ability to help the US Treasury financing, making the US economy "borrow new and old, and it is getting more and more difficult to eat food.It shows that the continuous background noise brought by the risk of situation in the Middle East and the pressure brought by US debt pressure is a black hole that cannot be evaded by the Federal Reserve.

This also explains the current monetary policy that allows the Federal Reserve to control inflation and how strong it has recovered with to avoid the dilemma of US debt issuance and burden.Obviously, the US debt of snowballs is constraining the US finance and monetary policy.Udabur Investment

According to the analysis, the US economy and financial markets are under these adversity environment, superimposed on high interest rates, high debts and low growth, and investors may prepare to press the selling key at any time. Among themUS dollar assets, what should I do at this time of the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve?

Therefore, the answer is obvious. The Fed and the US Ministry of Finance will be stuck to accelerate the risk of high inflation and debt defaults. In addition to harvesting their own people, they will continue to harvest economies with more obvious economic structure and financial debt issues.

As our research team emphasizes at different occasions, each strong US dollar cycle in history always trigger the shock in the economic and financial markets. This earlier and vivid cases can refer to Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

The latest cases that have occurred in recent weeks can also refer to Japan, Israel, Indonesia, Hungary, Chile, and Peru. At the same time, in South Korea, Thailand, and Poland have also stated in recent days that they are paying close attention to the fluctuations in currency and financial markets.It is ready to intervene at any timeBangalore Wealth Management. In addition, Vietnam, India, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Brazil, Myanmar, Turkey, and Argentina have also had sovereign debt defaults, and external debt issues have been serious.

Taking Japan as an example, on April 28, the US dollar against the yen continued to strengthen, maintained in the 158 yen range, and fell below the level of intervention in September last year. Touching a new low in 34 years, the yen collapse has become disorderly.Earlier, the Bank of Japan issued a statement of the shortest maintenance rate in the history of the central bank on the 26th, and then left, which shocked the trader’s stupid behavior of the Bank of Japan.

In this context, Goldman Sachs’s macro strategist estimate that the US dollar may rise by about 5%, causing the yen to fall to near 160, surpassing the level before the Asian financial crisis. Since March last year, the yen has depreciated against the US dollar.Nearly 31%, which will bring greater pressure on the Japanese financial market.

This shows that the risk of debt defaults in the United States is using different US dollars cycles of tightening and loose, and is passed on to some countries with single economic structures and fragile countries in conjunction with the US dollar currency status.The country is more likely to be a victim harvested by the United States. The four countries of Lebanon, Czech Republic, Barin, and Egypt may all face the dilemma of US dollar shortage or US dollar financing costs due to the steep inverted model of foreign debt and foreign reserves.Because the economies of these countries have fallen into the fragile model of severe depreciation of the currency and the debt crisis, respectively.

This has also further confirmed that as the US dollar index fluctuates rising, under the environment of supply chain shortage, economic growth and inflation are still high, the spillover effect of the US dollar index fluctuating will be indirectly passed on to the financial markets and commodity assets of these economies.In history, each strong US dollar cycle always causes crisis.

Therefore, the answer is obvious. The United States will conceally pass on the growing debt defaults and deficit risks, and start to continue to harvest economies with more obvious economic structure and financial debt issues to collect coinage taxes and the tidal effects of the US dollar tidal effect.Below, the economy, assets and exchange rates of these markets will continue to be affected, which makes the Indian economy shudder.

Analysis shows that the soaring yield of strong US dollars and recent US bonds has brought potential major problems to India, which represents the tightening of the financial situation of the Indian economy, and makes the repayment cost of debt for US dollars more expensive.Due to the intensification of geographical tensions in the Middle East, Indian investors scrambled to reduce the risk of investment portfolios, and let India start a "currency defense war" to defend the Rsdylum Rsdylobe by selling the US dollar.

Obviously, the higher US dollar interest rate and external debt pressure are being hit by India’s economic activities. At the same time, global economic development is low, financial credit is tight, and the increase in oil prices in the Middle East will also bring inflation and demand pressure to India.The inflation rate has been at a precarious high.

Data show that at present, the continuous high inflation in Europe and the United States has been affecting domestic production activities of Indian agriculture and manufacturing industry, and inflation led by food and energy is soaring to 7%.Major challenges also need to solve the risk of non -performing loans in the banking system.

According to the latest data from the Indian Ministry of Statistics, as of April 15, 2024, India’s inflation rate was 6.95%, which was the highest level in 17 months.India’s inflation rate has been on the rise in the past year, mainly due to rising global commodity prices, rising global conflicts, led to surge in energy prices, and the rise of domestic demand in India. To this end, the Central Bank of India has taken measures to suppress inflation, including increasing improvementinterest rate.However, these measures may have a negative impact on economic growth. At the same time, this consequence is that India’s debt pressure will increase.

Analysts said that the Indian central bank is now discovering that it is in a difficult situation. It hopes to increase interest rates to curb soaring inflation, but at the same time, the turbulent financial market situation in India may slow down the actual economic growth.In the March interest rate conference, the benchmark interest rate of the central bank remained unchanged at 6.5%.

According to data from Refinitiv EIKON, within the year of April 28, the Indian rupee depreciated by 15.32%against the US dollar. Currently, the US $ 1 is 82.98 rupees.Fast speed, it has been listed by international institutions as one of the countries that need to consolidate fiscal most in emerging markets.

Some economists who are connected to the international team of BWC explained that after more than 30 years of development, although India has become the pole of world economic growth, most of this growth is attributed to Indian companies and capital to be more likely to enter the Western world.Now that these situations have reversed, the Indian economic miracle scam is being revealed, and the wave of evacuation is being encountered.

All evidence shows that the labor cost of India looks very cheap, but the chaotic management of this economy means low productivity, and the labor participation rate has dropped to the lowest level in 3 years.The functional departments of the private sector are full of chaos and waste.

According to the explanation of zero -in -in -in -laws on US financial websites, the reason why the Indian economy is fragile is the core of the US dollar debt trap and wants to exchange interests with the Wall Street Group, but India’s external reserves bear Gundam more than 70% of GDP more than 70%External debt has been rated as a country that has been rated by international institutions to consolidate the fiscal most in Southeast Asia.

According to the IMF report in March, India is the country with the highest debt ratios among all emerging markets. As of the fourth quarter of fiscal year in fiscal 2023, the general government debt in India has risen to 78.3%of GDP, and it is 2018The highest level, and this series of signs show that India may decline back to prototype due to debt dilemma.

This shows that the high growth of the Indian economy in the past has accumulated huge dollars in debt. This will exacerbate the Indian market fluctuations and squeeze out international investment in the process of harvesting India in the United States, because the Indian economy is based on accumulating risk loans and loans andForeign debts expand economic growth, but India does not have a broad foreign reserve moat. In the context of the United States began to harvest India, even the Indian central bank had to admit that they were almost powerless in controlling India’s rupees.

According to data released by the Bank of India on April 15th, as of March, India’s foreign reserves were US $ 573.2 billion, a decrease of 13.1%from the same period last year, a new low in the past two years, which indicates that it has lost 14%of India’s losses outside of India.Under the storage, India still cannot stop the rupees from continuing to fallChennai Investment. In the context of India’s high interest rates in the Federal Reserve, the rise in borrowing costs and the continued decline in currencies will not change in the short term.

This shows that the cost of repayment of external debt in India has begun to increase, and the risk of breach of contract has soared, which is likely to be harvested by US capital harvesting wealth, making the Indian stock and debt market risk of explosive crisis, which also makes a lot of wise investment in the number of wise investment.Those withdrawn from India in advance.For example, European and American manufacturers, which have mastered most of India’s manufacturing industry, have evacuated since last year, and behind this have hidden the high predicament of Indian economic debt.

We have noticed that in the past few months, Indian manufacturing has been dismissed by foreign companies. For example, after Foxconn suddenly suspended 19.5 billion US dollars in Indian chip factory projects in July last year, Disney is also considering evacuating from India.

In recent times, news including Ford, GM, Harley Davidson, and Tesla’s refusal to cooperate with India have been reported by the media.In the 24 months of March this year, India’s foreign direct investment inflows were US $ 48.72 billion, less than $ 59.6 billion in 2021.

Obviously, these global manufacturing companies ‘evacuation of India has caused a significant blow to the Indian authorities’ ambitions to attract foreign investors to realize the world factory. These incidents are definitely major setbacks in ‘India -made’, and they have caused other investments in India in India.The suspicion and follow -up of foreign companies expressed concerns about India’s investment environment, tax disputes, procurement rules, and business environment of restrictions on competitive choices.

According to the analysis, given India’s social structure, infrastructure and labor participation rates, the "potential" of the world factory manufactured by India has been overestimated.

For example, the Wall Street Institution Citi Bank has lowered the rating of the Indian stock market. Some analysts said that the current valuation of the Indian stock market is relatively high, and Indian companies have a poor profitability.The data disclosed said that since the fourth quarter of 2023, overseas investors have sold Indian stocks worth $ 3.8 billion (about 3.1.5 million Indian rupees), which has the best outflow of funds in emerging markets.

Some investors in India have told BWC Chinese Network Finance Team that they have been investing in various types of investment in India for nearly 25 years, but now they are evacuating from India because India’s economic and business environment is poor and the flow of financial markets isSex is exhausted, industrial production growth is sluggish, and bank debt and credit issues are outstanding.And this is one of the reasons why a small number of wise investors quietly withdrawn from the Indian market.

For example, in August 2023, the Indian authorities suddenly announced that it was restricted to the import of laptop computers to promote local production. The measures caused panic in the industry, and interventional policies like this will also make investors lose enthusiasm.

For example, at the beginning of last year, the US Wall Street short -term short -term short -term short -term Indian chaebol Adoni is the most vivid example. Therefore, this series of signs show that India’s economy and manufacturing may be brewing a huge recession, so the Indian economy is very goodIt may decline for 20 years, especially the export industry in India.

For another example, India has also slowed down in the manufacturing recruitment of manufacturing, such as engineering, textiles, and software, which has also been proven from India’s finished product exports to 7%year -on -year in the past six months.(over)

Kolkata Wealth Management